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In case anyone is getting started on Assignment 2, I wanted to show you how to calculate the ratio of the working-age population to the non-working age population in Excel. I did an example using U.S. data to show you the commands in Excel (attached). The working age is the 15-64 year old group, and the non-working age is the 0-14 group plus the 65 and older group. The ratio is the 15-64 year olds divided by the sum of the 0-14 and 65+ year olds.
I also wanted to warn you that it is possible to have a negative correlation coefficient; a correlation coefficient can be as low as -1 and as high as +1. A coefficient of -1 indicates that the two variables are perfectly negatively correlated: when one goes up, the other goes down.
In this assignment, you will find and analyze data on the birth rate and the ratio of the working- age population to the non-working-age population for China and India. You will compare the countries and whether GDP per capita helps to explain these demographic changes.
World Bank World Development Indicators
Background data collection and analysis:
1. Download birth rate and death rate data for China, India, and Canada starting in the year of the 1960s corresponding to the last digit of your B00 number. For example, if your B00 number ends in 5, collect data starting in 1965; if your B00 number ends in 7, collect data starting in 1967. Find data through the year 2017. Use the series Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people) and Death rate, crude (per 1,000 people).
2. Construct a figure showing the birth rate of China, India, and Canada on the same chart. Construct a second figure showing the death rate of China, India, and Canada on the same chart.
3. For China and India (separately), calculate the correlation coefficient between the birth rate and GDP per capita (use GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)), and calculate the correlation coefficient between the death rate and GDP per capita, between your earliest year (selected according to the last digit of your B00 number) and the year 2017.
4. Download data on the working-age population and non-working-age population for China, India, and Canada starting in the year of the 1960s corresponding to the last digit of your B00 number. Find data through the year 2018. Calculate the ratio of the working-age population to the non-working-age population. Use the series Population ages 15-64 (% of total) for the working-age population, and the sum of the two series Population ages 0-14 (% of total) and Population ages 65 and above (% of total) for the non-working-age population.
5. For China and India (separately), calculate the correlation coefficient between the ratio of the working-age population to the non-working-age population and GDP per capita (use GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)) between your earliest year (selected according to the last digit of your B00 number) and the year 2018.
In your essay, describe the demographic changes over time in China and India in the birth rate and the death rate. When did the ratio of the working-age population to the non-working-age population peak? Compare the two countries to each other and to Canada, and discuss whether GDP per capita is associated with changes in demography. What do Bloom and Williamson (1998) suggest will happen to the ratio of the working-age to non-working-age population throughout the demographic transition? Based on this, where do you think China and India are in the demographic transition?
Your essay must have a title, an introduction, and a conclusion. Make sure to define your terms and provide appropriate background information. A suggested essay structure contains five paragraphs:
- a first paragraph that briefly introduces the argument you will make in the essay;
- a second paragraph describing how the birth rate and death rate have changed over time;
- a third paragraph describing how the working-age to non-working-age ratio has changed over time;
- a fourth paragraph describing and comparing how well the birth rate, the death rate, and the working-age to non-working-age ratio correlate with GDP per capita in each country, including Bloom and Williamson’s predictions;
- and a fifth, concluding, paragraph that briefly describes the main points you have made in the essay. The maximum length is 500 words plus a two-page data appendix; include a word count at the end of your submission. Include the grading rubric as the first page of your submission. Use Chicago or APA style, and write in 11- or 12-point font, double-spaced, with one-inch margins. Provide a bibliography listing the references you use, including the class PowerPoints if relevant. You must submit a hard copy (in class) and an electronic copy (on Brightspace) by the deadline. Please note that the electronic copy will be submitted to anti-plagiarism software. Data Appendix:
The data appendix should include enough detail for the grader to determine that you downloaded the correct data and performed the calculations accurately; if not all of your data fits on two pages, you may decide to include only the first and last years of information. Required charts and figures go into the body of your essay; any supplemental charts and figures should be placed in your data appendix. Penalties:
- Late submissions: -10 points per day, starting immediately after 4:05 p.m.
- If you submit only an electronic copy and no hard copy, you will receive a zero on the assignment.
- If you submit only a hard copy and no electronic copy, you will receive a zero on the assignment.
- No rubric: -1 point.
- No data appendix: -2 points.
- Data appendix over two pages: -1 point for each additional page.
- No word count: -2 points.
- Over 500 words: -1 point for each additional 50 words (e.g., -1 for 501 words, -2 for 551 words, etc).